Resources · Financial Theory & Economics · Financial Macroeconomics
Activité, croissance et richesse (le PIB)
Mesurer la croissance et relier le potentiel de l'économie à vos rendements de long terme.
Module 2 of the “Financial Macroeconomics” course. See the full course →
Module articles
- 9. Understanding GDP: The Measure of the Wealth a Country ProducesValue added, three approaches, C + I + G + (X − M), reading a quarterly release, cross-country comparisons and the blind spots of GDP.
- 10. Real GDP and Nominal GDP: Why Correct for InflationNominal GDP, real GDP, the deflator: how to separate volumes from prices — and why a number that rises can hide a recession, as it did in 1974.
- 11. Economic Growth and What It Is Worth to Your Long-Term ReturnsWhere equity returns actually come from, why growth dilutes, and why the fastest-growing countries have not enriched their shareholders.
- 12. Productivity and Long-Run Growth: The Variable That Decides EverythingOutput per hour, multiplied by 5.2 since 1947: the two engines of productivity, its waves, its slowdown — and who reaps the gains.
- 13. AI, Automation and Productivity: A New Engine of Growth?US productivity really has accelerated since 2022. But attributing it to AI does not survive the data — on growth or on employment.
- 14. Demography and Growth: How Population Shapes the EconomyGrowth = working-age population + productivity. Japan did not stagnate, it shrank — and the demographic dividend is never automatic.
- 15. Potential Growth and the Output Gap: The Map No One Can MeasurePotential GDP and the output gap: two numbers central banks track, nobody can really measure, and whose revisions are as large as themselves.
- 16. Saving and Investment: The Two Engines Financing the EconomyS = I is an accounting identity, not a law. The saving glut of the rich, the fall of the natural rate, and why Europe invests in bricks.
- 17. Climate and Macroeconomics: Physical Risk, Transition and Potential GrowthPhysical, transition and liability risk: climate as a hard macro variable — and why estimates of its cost vary by a factor of ten.
- 18. Data Workshop: Discovering FRED, the Federal Reserve's WarehouseA workshop: searching, reading, transforming and exporting an economic series on FRED, the St. Louis Fed's database — and its six classic traps.
- 19. Your First Python Script: Load a FRED Series and Plot It in Ten LinesA workshop: load a FRED series and plot it in ten lines of Python, with nothing to install — including the trap that breaks every pre-2025 tutorial.
- 20. Growth Already Anticipated: Why It's Often Already in the PriceThe BRICs delivered their promised growth; the fund that sold the story lost about 21% over five years while its assets under management fell 88% from their peak. Why predictable growth is already in the price.